Unraveling Crime Dynamics in Indonesia: Exploring the Impact of Population Density, Poverty, Average Years of Schooling (RLS), and Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in Java in 2020
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14421/welfare.2023.121-03Keywords:
socio-economy factors, path analysis, direct effect, indirect effectAbstract
Abstract: The fluctuating crime rate in Indonesia, particularly in the moderate category, highlights the intricate interplay of various factors influencing criminal activities. This research endeavors to uncover the correlations among different variables contributing to crime by utilizing a cross-sectional approach based on secondary data sourced from the 2021 BPS data. The study discerns a positive correlation between population density and the open unemployment rate (TPT) in relation to crime. Conversely, poverty and the average years of schooling (RLS) exhibit a relatively minor impact. During the examination of these relationships, it became evident that the population density variable exerts both direct and indirect influences on crime.
The indirect connection is established through the impact of population density on the poverty rate, which subsequently exerts a positive and direct influence on crime. Consequently, it is apparent that population density stands out as the predominant factor influencing the crime rate on Java Island. To address this, interventions targeting the decomposition of population density are essential, particularly through initiatives aimed at fostering increased solidarity. This is imperative because the correlation between population density and poverty, contributing to an escalation in crime, results in a decline in individual trust levels, fostering competition for resource access. This heightened competition, in turn, precipitates struggles that contribute to the emergence of criminal activities.
Keyword; socio-economy factors, path analysis, direct effect, indirect effect
Abstrak: Penurunan tingkat kriminalitas di Indonesia yang fluktuatif dengan jumlah kriminalitas dalam kategori sedang mencerminkan keragaman faktor yang mendeterminasi tindakan kejahatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan hubungan antar varibel yang mempengaruhi tindakan kriminalitas dengan menggunakan cross sectional terhadap sumber data sekunder yang diperoleh dari data BPS 2021. Penelitian ini menemukan hubungan positif antara kepadatan penduduk dan tingkat pengangguran terbuka (TPT) terhadap kriminalitas. Sedangkan kemiskinan dan rata-rata lama sekolah (RLS) berpengaruh kecil. Dalam proses pengujian hubungan ditemukan variabel kepadatan penduduk memiliki pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung terhadap kriminalitas. Hubungan tidak langsung ditemukan melalui pengaruh kepadatan penduduk terhadap tingkat kemiskinan yang berpengaruh positif dan langsung terhadap kriminalitas, sehingga varibel dominan yang mempengaruhi tingkat kejahatan di Pulau Jawa bersumber dari kepadatan penduduk. Intervensi yang dibutuhkan dalam penguraian kepadatan penduduk diperlukan melalui peningkatan solidaritas. Hal ini disebabkan hubungan kepadatan penduduk terhadap kemiskinan yang menyebabkan peningkatan kejahatan berdampak pada pengurangan tingkat kepercayaan individu yang menjadi pendorong persaingan terhadap akses sumber daya. Persaingan ini pada akhirnya memunculkan perebutan yang memunculkan beragama tindakan kriminalitas.
Kata Kunci: faktor sosial ekonomi, analisis jalur, pengaruh langsung, pengaruh tidak langsung
Abstract viewed: 276 times
|
PDF downloaded = 185 times
References
Alfianita Abdila, A., Tison Situmorang, A., Hidayat, M., Firmansyah Buhroni, A., Septyana, F., Yulivan, I., & Sutrasna, Y. (2022). The Effect of Unemployment and Poverty on Criminality in East Java Province in Supporting State Defense. Journal of Research in Business, Economics, and Education, 4(4), 13–19. https://doi.org/10.55683/jrbee.v4i4.393
Anders, J., Barr, A. C., & Smith, A. A. (2023). The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 15(1), 37–69. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20200660
Andini, S. P. (2021). Faktor Penyebab Terjadinya Tindak Pidana Pencurian Kendaraan Bermotor Beroda Dua pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 di Wilayah Polres Bungo. Universitas Jambi.
Antama, F., & Zuhdy, M. (2021). Faktor-Faktor Penyebab Cyberbullying yang Dilakukan Oleh Remaja di Kota Yogyakarta. Indonesian Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology (IJCLC), 2(2), 66–77. https://doi.org/10.18196/ijclc.v2i2.12317
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2021). Statistik Kriminal 2021. Badan Pusat Statistik.
Ballantine, J. H., & Roberts, K. A. (2010). Our Social World: Introduction to Sociology. SAGE Publications.
Bandi, M., Petrus Leo, R., & Manu, N. (2023). Faktor Penyebab dan Upaya Penanggulangan Tindak Pidana Pencabulan Anak oleh Ayah Kandung di Wilayah Hukum Kepolisian Sektor Kelapa Lima. Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 3(6), 553–566. https://doi.org/10.59141/cerdika.v3i06.608
Boserup, E. (2014). The conditions of agricultural growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population Pressure. Routledge.
Braun, C. (2019). Crime and the minimum wage. Review of Economic Dynamics, 32(February), 122–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2019.02.002
Calnitsky, D. (2018). Structural and individualistic theories of poverty. Sociology Compass, 12(12). https://doi.org/10.1111/soc4.12640
Christiani, C., Tedjo, P., & Martono, B. (2014). Analisis Dampak Kepadatan Penduduk terhadap Kualitas Hidup Masyarakat Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Ilmiah Untag, 102–114.
Crank, J. P. (2003). Crime and justice in the context of resource scarcity. Crime, Law and Social Change, 39(1), 39–67. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022402228690/METRICS
Dalimunthe, R. R. (2017). Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara pada Tahun 2014. Universitas Sumatera Utara.
Dirgantara, R. (2020). Analisis Kejahatan Begal dengan Motivasi Perampokan di Kota Palu. Tadulako Master Law Journal, 4(2), 159–173. https://doi.org/10.22487/TMLJ.V4I2.199
Douglas, E. (2021). Dense but not crowded: maintaining a sense of neighborhood community in a world of increasing urban density [University of British Columbia]. https://doi.org/10.14288/1.0397248
Dulkiah, M., & Nurjanah. (2018). Pengaruh Kemiskinan Terhadap Tingkat Tindak Kriminalitas di Kota Bandung. Jispo, 8(2), 57.
Edwart, A. O., & Azhar, Z. (2019). Pengaruh Tingkat Pendidikan, Kepadatan Penduduk dan Ketimpangan Pendapatan Terhadap Kriminalitas di Indonesia. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 1(3), 759–768.
Ervina, M. E. (2020). Hubungan Rata-rata Lama Sekolah, Gini Ratio, dan Pengeluaran Per Kapita dengan Tingkat Kejahatan Tahun 2011-2018. Euclid, 7(2), 97. https://doi.org/10.33603/e.v7i2.2974
Eysenck, H. J., & Gudjonsson, G. H. (1991). The Causes and Cures of Criminality. Springer.
Fajri, R. E., & Rizki, C. Z. (2019). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Kepadatan Penduduk dan Pengangguran terhadap Kriminalitas Perkotaan Aceh. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa, 4(3), 255–263.
Faradila, N. (2022). Analisis Kriminologi terhadap Kejahatan Kekerasan yang Dilakukan Secara Bersama-sama oleh Anak di Kota Bukittinggi. UNES Law Review, 5(1), 211–219. https://doi.org/10.31933/UNESREV.V5I2.321
Fidelis, I., & Sunday, O. E. (2018). Application and Relevance of Path Analysis in Casual Modeling. Global Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(10), 26–50.
Greider, T., Krannich, R. S., & Berry, E. H. (1991). Local Identity, Solidarity, and Trust in Changing Rural Communities. Sociological Focus, 24(4), 263–282. https://doi.org/10.1080/00380237.1991.10570594
Gunuboh, T. M. (2023). Parental Poverty and Neighborhood Conditions as Predictors of Juvenile Crime Rates. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 11(07), 287–318. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2023.117021
Gustriani Harahap, W., Linda Sari, R., & Lubis, I. (2023). Analysis of The Effect of Population Density, Unemployment, Minimum Wage, and Human Development Index (IPM) on Criminality in North Sumatra. International Journal of Social Science, Education, Communication and Economics (SINOMICS JOURNAL), 2(2), 179–192. https://doi.org/10.54443/sj.v2i2.127
Harahap, F. R. (2013). Dampak Urbanisasi Bagi Perkembangan Kota Di Indonesia. Society, 1(1), 35–45. https://doi.org/10.33019/society.v1i1.40
Hariyantia, F. N., Purtomo S, R., & Wilantari, R. N. (2021). The Effect of Economic Growth and Demographic Concition on Criminality in East Java Province. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga, 31(1), 28. https://doi.org/10.20473/jeba.V31I12021.28-39
Hartono, B., Aprinisa, A., & Akbarsyah, A. (2021). Implementasi Sanksi Pidana Pelaku Tindak Pidana Kejahatan Terhadap Nyawa Orang Lain Yang Direncanakan (Pembunuhan Berencana). Jurnal Penelitian & Pengkajian Ilmiah Mahasiswa (JPPIM), 2(4), 31–44.
Ikhsan, I., & Amri, A. (2023). Exploration of macroeconomic effects on criminality in Indonesia. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2206678
Insurly. (2020). 2020 Ranking of The Safest Countries.
Ishak, R. A., Zakaria, J., & Arifin, M. (2020). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pendidikan dan Pengangguran Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Kota Makassar. Paradoks: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 3(2), 41–53.
Ismah, U. (2015). Pengaruh Pengangguran terhadap Kriminalitas di Kabupaten Solok. Kumpulan Artikel Wisudawan S1 Program Studi PPKn Periode Ke 64 Agustus 2015, 4(9), 105–112.
Kementrian Dalam Negeri RI. (2021). Distribusi Penduduk Indonesia Per Juni 2021: Jabar Terbanyak, Kaltara Paling Sedikit.
Kohm, S. A. (2009). Spatial Dimensions of Fear in a High-Crime Community: Fear of Crime or Fear of Disorder? Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice, 51(1), 1–30. https://doi.org/10.3138/cjccj.51.1.1
Lamond, G. (2007). What is a crime? Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, 27(4), 609–632. https://doi.org/10.1093/ojls/gqm018
Lochner, L. (2020). Education and crime. The Economics of Education: A Comprehensive Overview, 109–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-815391-8.00009-4
Manhica, H., Straatmann, V. S., Lundin, A., Agardh, E., & Danielsson, A. (2021). Association between poverty exposure during childhood and adolescence, and drug use disorders and drug‐related crimes later in life. Addiction, 116(7), 1747–1756. https://doi.org/10.1111/add.15336
Nabilah, P. P., Zidni, R. M., Humairoh, N. L., & Widodo, E. (2021). Penerapan Spatial Error Model (SEM) untuk Mengetahui FaktorFaktor yang Memengaruhi Kriminalitas. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2021(1), 333–342. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2021i1.870
Newman, G., & Clarke, R. V. (2016). Rational Choice and Situational Crime Prevention: Theoretical Foundations. Taylor & Francis.
Nouri, M., Holden, M., Sones, M., Winters, M., & Mahmood, A. (2022). Knowledge Synthesis for the Emerging Asocial Society. In Social Quality of Life in High-Density Built Environments. Knowledge Synthesis for the Emerging Asocial Society.
Nucci, L., Narvaez, D., & Krettenauer, T. (2014). Handbook of Moral and Character Education. In Dairy Science & Technology, CRC Taylor & Francis Group (Nomor June).
Numbeo. (2022). Crime Index by Country.
Reavindo, Q. (2021). Pengaruh Komponen Pada IPM Terhadap Persentase Penduduk Miskin di Kabupaten Karo Tahun 2010-2020. Cermin: Jurnal Penelitian, 5(2), 286–295.
Regianda, K., Ismansyah, I., & Suharizal, S. (2022). Faktor Penyebab Dan Penanggulangan Tindak Pidana Penyalahgunaan Narkotika Yang Dilakukan Di Kalangan Mahasiswa (Studi Kasus Di Polresta Padang. QISTIE, 14(2), 67. https://doi.org/10.31942/jqi.v14i2.5592
Sabiq, R. M. (2019). Pengaruh kepadatan penduduk terhadap tingkat kriminal. Jurnal Kolaborasi Resolusi Konflik, 3(2).
Sarwono, J. (2011). Get to know the path of Analysis: History, Understanding, and Application, Scientific Journal of Business Management. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis, 11(2), 285–296.
Sianturi, Y. I. (2020). Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kriminalitas Di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2019 Dengan Analisis Jalur. Fakultas Matematika Dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Sumatera Utara.
Silvia, & Ikhsan. (2021). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Kemiskinan dan Kepadatan Penduduk terhadap Kriminalitas di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Pembangunan (JIM EKP) Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Syiah Kuala, 6(1), 23–30.
Sinaga, Y. Y., & Anshori, A. M. (2022). Faktor Penyebab Tingginya Kenakalan dan Kriminalitas Remaja pada Masyarakat. Dakwatul Islam, 7(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.46781/dakwatulislam.v7i1.582
Sugiharti, L., Esquivias, M. A., Shaari, M. S., Agustin, L., & Rohmawati, H. (2022). Criminality and Income Inequality in Indonesia. Social Sciences, 11(3), 142. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci11030142
Utami, R. R., & Asih, M. K. (2021). Faktor-faktor determinasi Perilaku Kejahatan (Determination Factors of Criminal Behavior). Psibernetika, 14(1), 11–16. https://doi.org/10.30813/PSIBERNETIKA.V14I1.2407
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Welfare: Jurnal Ilmu Kesejahteraan Sosial agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
